For what it’s worth–this is my most optimistic guess:
Beginning with WSJ’s 216-203 Bush, I see the Toss Ups falling like this:
| State | EV | Winner |
| NV | 5 | Bush |
| NM | 5 | Bush |
| MN | 10 | Bush |
| IA | 7 | Bush |
| AR | 6 | Bush |
| WI | 10 | Bush |
| OH | 20 | Bush |
| PA | 21 | Kerry |
| NY | 4 | Kerry |
| FL | 27 | Kerry |
Bush 216 + 63 = 279 (winner)
Kerry 203 + 52 = 255 (loser)
Popular vote: Bush 50-Kerry 48-Nader/others <1.
Senate: GOP + 4
House: GOP + 4
Likely alternatiaves (in order of probability):
- Bush wins Florida
- Kerry wins Ohio
- Bush wins Pennsylvannia
- Kerry wins Minnesota
- Kerry wins Wisconsin
- Bush wins Michigan
- Kerry wins New Mexico
- Bush wins Hawaii